tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post8752232417122395543..comments2024-03-28T13:45:12.227-07:00Comments on <em>Archimago's Musings</em>: MUSINGS: COVID-19 - "WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM..."Archimagohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-3943513369487675422020-03-28T13:36:52.896-07:002020-03-28T13:36:52.896-07:00So far so good... Preparations still ongoing thoug...So far so good... Preparations still ongoing though since we don't expect the peak until Easter or thereabouts.<br /><br />At least one of the medical wards in my hospital being converted to negative pressure rooms this weekend as inpatient departments targeting 50% occupancy rates. Will see how the battle goes soon enough!Archimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-27600214602924571382020-03-28T13:28:09.381-07:002020-03-28T13:28:09.381-07:00BTW, when we're looking at impacts this virus ...BTW, when we're looking at impacts this virus has had and responses we make, don't forget that we are a highly interconnected world now.<br /><br />I find especially US media tends to be highly <em>self-centered</em>, and many have no concept of other cultures or even geography. Even the extreme "liberals" who fight for illegal immigrants, rights of the poor, right to use drugs,Archimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-11198409111644040732020-03-28T13:24:43.806-07:002020-03-28T13:24:43.806-07:00Nice...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-co...Nice...<br /><br />https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/physical-distancing-bc-covid19-coronavirus-1.5512269Vaalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14896147903257500224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-35658688872118713852020-03-28T09:46:47.486-07:002020-03-28T09:46:47.486-07:00Thanks André, I think many people must be getting ...Thanks <em>André</em>, I think many people must be getting "cabin fever" at this point especially with the allure of hopefully beautiful weather ahead!<br /><br />Data around the "not too badly hit" parts of the Western world I think looking similar. This AM, the Canadian data showing 9% hospitalization rates for those infected with severe symptoms. 3% ICU. About 30% younger Archimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-4722920026246879322020-03-28T09:12:55.279-07:002020-03-28T09:12:55.279-07:00Thanks again Gil Noh,
Fantastic comments and obser...Thanks again <em>Gil Noh</em>,<br />Fantastic comments and observations!<br /><br />Good points about the (T)TQ strategy and I can certainly appreciate the psychological force multiplier effect of testing positive and <em>knowing that one is positive and be extra careful</em>.<br /><br />Alas, I suspect the "train has left the station" at this point when >100k are positive in the US Archimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-29120052401939911152020-03-28T02:42:09.242-07:002020-03-28T02:42:09.242-07:00And finally, after two weeks stuck at home, I'...And finally, after two weeks stuck at home, I'm going to take advantage of this Saturday to take some distance and relax by listening to music.Andréhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12344953582702615485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-76194514385267502182020-03-28T02:28:44.209-07:002020-03-28T02:28:44.209-07:00And one final point :-) Eh, not related to TTQ str...And one final point :-) Eh, not related to TTQ strategy, but just an observation / opinion. <br /><br />As an Asian who previously lived in US, Singapore, and now in Germany; I think people are often over-estimating the role of cultural differences. I mean, countries do have big differences (e.g. guns in US, total censorship in China), but they are not that relevant in fighting epidemic. More Gil Nohhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05016329217284507698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-84199777483207944022020-03-28T02:08:08.482-07:002020-03-28T02:08:08.482-07:00(Eh, deleted and writing again. :-) couldn't f...(Eh, deleted and writing again. :-) couldn't find a way to edit/fix broken sentences... ) <br /><br />> it ends with herd immunity.<br />I totally agree. Even in S.Korea, the strategy is just delaying it with TTQ. Goal of TTQ is not the full containment. Goal is to keep it under the grip, until wide (again, wide-sampled) anti-body test shows about 50/60% of immunity among the population. <Gil Nohhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05016329217284507698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-18010150963626299772020-03-28T01:31:32.097-07:002020-03-28T01:31:32.097-07:00Same information for Belgium
https://epidemio.wiv-...Same information for Belgium<br />https://epidemio.wiv-isp.be/ID/Documents/Covid19/Derni%c3%a8re%20mise%20%c3%a0%20jour%20de%20la%20situation%20%c3%a9pid%c3%a9miologique.pdf<br /><br />Interesting reading about aerosol transmission<br />https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973?query=featured_homeAndréhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12344953582702615485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-78436581046608382792020-03-27T10:15:08.436-07:002020-03-27T10:15:08.436-07:00For those monitoring things in Europe, my friend i...For those monitoring things in Europe, my friend in Germany sent me this link of their national update for March 26th:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-03-26-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile" rel="nofollow">Germany - National COVID-19 Update - March 26, 2020</a><br /><br />It's in German.<br /><br />Highlights:<br />- 78% ofArchimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-65551488168679110102020-03-27T09:52:36.506-07:002020-03-27T09:52:36.506-07:00As expected, he's basically saying that "...As expected, he's basically saying that "look, social distancing worked", right?<br /><br />I don't know about that. As far as I can tell, the disease was never really one of high mortality. Remember, treatments are basically SUPPORTIVE in nature. Is he saying that in the UK, the social distancing measures were so good, that it prevented <strong>25x</strong> the numbers dead!? <Archimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-2902896503764389682020-03-27T09:47:05.504-07:002020-03-27T09:47:05.504-07:00Thanks for the great discussion Gil Noh!
Apprecia...Thanks for the great discussion <em>Gil Noh</em>!<br /><br />Appreciate you taking the time to go through the details. I think as a North American, this style of data gathering and surveillance with utilization of the authorities to enforce is not going to be acceptable to the general population. The culture does not have nearly the amount of trust in the government or authorities especially in Archimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-24307387453848152012020-03-27T08:49:21.476-07:002020-03-27T08:49:21.476-07:00Thanks Arch,
About the Imperial College revision,...Thanks Arch,<br /><br />About the Imperial College revision, Neil Ferguson of the study clarified that although the number of predicted deaths would be down, the predicted mortality rate is not revised. He tweeted about this here:<br /><br />https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928Vaalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14896147903257500224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-40697120990762509482020-03-27T01:27:44.364-07:002020-03-27T01:27:44.364-07:00I have a different opinion on the point of testing...I have a different opinion on the point of testing. I do not understand why you don't consider aggressive testing (near-blanket testing such as S.Korea), as one possible mean to replace the total lock down. <br /><br />In S.Korea, what they are doing is aggressive testing, and lock-down only those people and clusters infected, instead of region or country. South Korea entered community Gil Nohhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05016329217284507698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-66611944087258426122020-03-26T23:38:35.838-07:002020-03-26T23:38:35.838-07:00Thanks Allan, that's an awesome performance! F...Thanks Allan, that's an awesome performance! Fallon did an amazing job! Hmmm, wonder if Neil was promoting Pono on that episode in 2015?<br /><br />Yeah, it's surreal in the hospitals. Normally the cafeteria is quite full on a weekday, easily >100 staff and students, today there were maybe 10 nurses, doctors, and allied health there; all appropriately physically distanced of course!<brArchimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-72625960287995459672020-03-26T23:03:46.722-07:002020-03-26T23:03:46.722-07:00Almost forgot... music chaser because the world ne...Almost forgot... music chaser because the world needs to chill. And since I love a good cover, Jimmy Fallon covering Neil Young every bit as good as Neil Young covering Neil Young:<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/embed/H6otmy3DAK8<br /><br />Cheers.Allan Folzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06762674627739423845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-45512260371474824502020-03-26T22:57:09.579-07:002020-03-26T22:57:09.579-07:00Thanks for the boots-on-the-ground update, Arch. O...Thanks for the boots-on-the-ground update, Arch. Outside of NYC and a few suspiciously partisan reports, my (albeit very limited) checking-in with non-political hospital workers is like you state... business has an eerie down feeling to it because everything elective is cancelled and the covid tsunami everyone is expecting hasn't hit.<br /><br />Everyone is mentally prepped that this is the Allan Folzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06762674627739423845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-58866069220035519622020-03-26T21:56:51.091-07:002020-03-26T21:56:51.091-07:00Also for the record, that 500,000 dead UK model is...Also for the record, that 500,000 dead UK model is the same one that predicted 2.2M dead Americans. So I guess they're calling for <88,000 dead Americans now (assuming the reduction is about the same)?<br /><br />I'm sure people at some point will say that the big "scare number" was needed for social distancing policies. And that because we did that, hopefully the number of Archimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-52857239789650968512020-03-26T21:43:31.494-07:002020-03-26T21:43:31.494-07:00Oh yeah, for the record, looks like the Imperial C...Oh yeah, for the record, looks like the Imperial College model folks are revising their model of death from 500,000 in the UK to a much more reasonable <20,000. Well... <em>That model was a bit "off" the first time round, eh?</em> This is a good example of why I'm thinking the panic seemed a bit excessive!<br /><br /><a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/Archimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-81429855509863917732020-03-26T21:07:27.343-07:002020-03-26T21:07:27.343-07:00Hi Vaal,
As far as I am aware, this is not known y...Hi <em>Vaal</em>,<br />As far as I am aware, this is not known yet but presumably it should be like other infections and one develops IgG immunity which if strong enough the first time around should cover this strain for life. Of course there have been articles questioning this with anecdotes:<br />https://www.newscientist.com/article/Archimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-81852366195268315932020-03-26T14:20:39.365-07:002020-03-26T14:20:39.365-07:00Archimago,
Question:
One of the things we want t...Archimago,<br /><br />Question:<br /><br />One of the things we want to know that AFAIK hasn't been established yet:<br /><br />Once you've had the virus, what degree of immunity does that confer, and how long does it last?<br /><br />I'm wondering how exactly that question will be answered. Is there some non-ethically-dubious way that this can be tested in people who previously had Vaalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14896147903257500224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-24341025322039466092020-03-26T09:51:09.854-07:002020-03-26T09:51:09.854-07:00Very true Gedeon,
It's times like this where w...Very true <em>Gedeon</em>,<br />It's times like this where we as humans must recognize that we are truly in the "same boat". I believe there will be plenty of opportunities in the days ahead to show grace, compassion, and faith to fellow citizens of the world.<br /><br />As I look at the news these days, watch the politicians (especially the elderly politicians, some of whom clearlyArchimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-16505288723214436882020-03-26T00:46:19.807-07:002020-03-26T00:46:19.807-07:00This global challenge could eventually make us to ...This global challenge could eventually make us to think more about seeing us like a unique group of beings sharing time and space than individual nations or cultures. Most, always fighting to prevail over the rest trying to exploit all the natural resources available out there without control or limits. A chance to keep our focus on the true relevant things we need to take care of. Very sad, we Gedeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02725719615000752730noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-2178773388895993852020-03-25T13:54:15.146-07:002020-03-25T13:54:15.146-07:00Hey Mitch,
Yeah, as usual Trump is rather silly to...Hey <em>Mitch</em>,<br />Yeah, as usual Trump is rather silly to speak like that... Sure, it'd be "beautiful" to have businesses open "by Easter", but that's not realistic. Even though I think I'm more optimistic than much of the news out there, we'd be fortunate if the US can start relaxing precautions by mid-April.<br /><br />We definitely need to see the Archimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4781727111866727703.post-19432876859533645662020-03-25T13:36:16.449-07:002020-03-25T13:36:16.449-07:00What tests Adam?
Remember, we are now in the phas...What tests <em>Adam</em>?<br /><br />Remember, we are now in the phase of active community spread essentially worldwide. Assume anyone you come across has the virus. Isolation, distancing, hand hygiene, cover mouth, etc...<br /><br /><em>Tests should be reserved for special groups and especially those with symptoms and risk factors.</em> Unless the CDC wants to investigate a cluster of cases, Archimagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08642574001287787545noreply@blogger.com